False Cause Fallacy

What Is the False Cause Fallacy in Simple Terms

The false cause fallacy is a logical error in which someone assumes that one event caused another simply because the two are correlated, or because one happened after the other.

The False Cause Fallacy in Real Life

1. Many individuals who exhibited violent behavior were found to have played video games, leading many people to believe that video games caused the violent behavior.
2. Autism is often diagnosed around the same age children receive certain routine vaccinations. Because of this timing overlap, many individuals believe that vaccines cause autism.
3. Centenarians share their secrets to a long life, such as drinking one glass of wine a day or eating a certain meal daily. Because of this, some people come to believe that these single habits caused them to live past 100.

False Cause Fallacy and Other Factors at Play

People often overlook other contributing factors, which makes them more susceptible to the false cause fallacy.

For example, many have noticed that shark attacks tend to rise whenever ice cream sales increase. This pattern has inspired a number of humorous theories.

The data itself is accurate. Ice cream sales and shark attacks do rise together. But while the numbers are correct, the conclusion drawn from them is flawed.

Several other factors explain this pattern. Ice cream sales rise in the summer, when more people go swimming, and with more people in the water, the likelihood of shark attacks naturally increases too.

Conclusion

Correlation is not causation.